We have entered the new normal

The transition to 2022 was celebrated during the pandemic lockdown due to a new wave of infections with the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. This variant proved not to be as severe as the previous ones, and our communities reopened that spring.

Although there were no travel restrictions in place, many people fell ill and therefore did not travel. Many employees had also settled in well at home and did not immediately return to the workplace for the normal five days a week.

We experienced several increases in passenger numbers that year before things stabilised. After reopening society and until Easter, passenger numbers remained at 80% of 2019 levels for some time. After Easter and until the autumn holiday, the numbers grew again to 90%.

Many employers drew up guidelines for working from home during this period. Once it got dark, wet and cold after the autumn holiday, and many people put their bikes away, the numbers rose to 93% compared to the same period in 2019. This figure remained here for the entire period until the end of the year. Is this our New Normal?

93% of the previous level is a good starting point compared to other northern European countries. Helsinki, Stockholm and Rotterdam, for example, are 10-15 percentage points behind Ruter. Copenhagen and Reykjavik are on the same level as Oslo.

Everyone expected post-pandemic passenger numbers to remain lower than before. The main reason is the home office. In cities where the proportion of people working from home is high, returning to public transport would remain low. This is also the case in Ruter’s region.

The goal in itself is not for the population to travel as much as possible and that we should return to traffic management as it was before the pandemic. For society, it is good if total travel activity is reduced. This can result in lower emissions, less pressure on infrastructure and better mobility. Zero growth in passenger transport by car in metropolitan areas is still the political goal at the national level, which public transport will help to achieve – along with cycling and walking.

Green forms of mobility have strengthened overall in 2022, if we measure against 2020 and 2021. During the pandemic, the share of cars on the roads increased a lot, while some of that growth declined in 2022. Still, car use is still stronger in 2022 than it was before the pandemic. In other words, developments have not gone in the desired direction.

An important part of this scenario is that the cars being driven in 2022 are not the same as in 2019. The share of electric cars is rising rapidly in Oslo and Akershus. In October 2022, more EVs passed through the toll booths (37%) than petrol cars (28%) and diesel cars (25%). It is good for the environment that the proportion of zero-emission cars is growing. However, these cars are so attractive that more people are buying cars. This challenges the zero-growth target and accessibility in the street grids in both Oslo and Viken.

After a few years of very high satisfaction (76% and 75%), satisfaction in 2022 ended at 72% – which is lower than 2019 (74%). Perhaps this is partly due to the transition from the extra space in public transport vehicles to the fact that everyday life is back with full buses during rush hour?

The decline may also be due to the fact that – in 2022 – there has been a great deal of attention on the adjustments to the route services made in 2022, and the risk of further adjustments, as a result of Ruter having had an uncertain financing situation after the pandemic.

This is probably also a major reason why Ruter’s reputation has fallen a lot during 2022 (from 48 in 2021 to 44 in 2022). The takeover of the adapted transport service and challenges in parts of the service are also a possible explanation for the fall in satisfaction and reputation in 2022.

2021 started with the wave of the Omicron virus and the last round of lockdowns. Subsequently, passenger numbers have gradually risen over the course of the year, to stabilise at around 93% in the last quarter.

Figures for green mobility strengthened compared to the pandemic years. At the same time, cars in 2022 had a stronger position than in 2019.

Many of our travel habits before the pandemic resurfaced in 2022, but not to the same extent. At the end of the year, the number of public transport trips per week was about 93% of pre-pandemic levels. The opportunity to work from home has given many people a slightly more flexible workday and the choice of working from home.

However, the possibility of working outside the traditional office is not equally distributed in the region, and there are clear differences between the different market areas. More employees have had the opportunity to work from home in the inner city and the western districts outside Oslo and in Akershus west. The proportion in the east and south is somewhat lower. The travel numbers there have picked up slightly more than in the inner city and the west.

However, none of the market areas have the number of trips that were expected before the pandemic. The expected development was based on population trends and general assumed growth for public transport. Therefore, it is now appropriate to talk about a New Normal; traffic numbers have stabilised and people have incorporated new habits they want to stick to.

The fact that travel activity has stabilised at a slightly lower level than before means that ticket revenues have also stabilised at a slightly lower level. In practice, this entails a need for a higher proportion of subsidies for public transport services to be similar to what we had before the pandemic.

During 2022, Ruter took the consequences of reduced travel numbers and adjusted the frequency and route on some lines. The adjustments contributed to savings of MNOK 60 in annual operating expenses. The measures were taken on the basis of a thorough assessment of the consequences for our customers.

Reducing supply is demanding. Although the preliminary results are positive, Ruter will continue to monitor the areas where changes have been made – to look at the effects of the measures.

Now that the pandemic has subsided, Ruter has focused on measures that can contribute to the growth of green forms of mobility, so that we can reach regional and national climate goals. Ruter laid the foundation for, and implemented, a number of measures in 2022.

Ruter launched a new ticket campaign in Zone 1 in November and December: The price of the 30-day ticket was reduced by almost 40%. The purpose was to get more people to rediscover public transport and make it more attractive. The campaign was very well received by customers, and Ruter sold over 50% more 30-day tickets during the campaign period.

Ruter has been working to expand and improve its services across the board at the same time. In Oslo, age-friendly transport will be expanded to the Østensjø district in 2023. The service is now available in seven city districts.

Another type of chartered services was tested in 2022 in Akershus. The Nes pilot project, which ended in June, was open to all age groups, and the results were good. Older and younger customers in particular used Pilot Nes. Ruter is using the results from this piolt project to further develop our chartered services concepts.

One important milestone in 2022 was the signing of new tender contracts for the inner city and the eastern part of Oslo. These contracts ensure that virtually all scheduled public transport in Oslo will be emission-free by the end of 2023, five years before the targeted deadline.

An emission-free public transport service is important for both local and national emissions, and is a visible example of how Ruter as a public purchaser can contribute to rapid and sustainable change.